Flood at the school RusHydro hopes to pass on chance, but there is still a chance

Flood at the school "RusHydro" hopes to pass on "maybe", but there is still a chance

Sunday, May 23, 2010 By Anastasia
The secretary of “RusHydro” Elena Vishnyakova explained the appearance of oil in water in the stream of the “Yenisei” by the fact that the oil was in the snow. And when it melted, the oil got into the mainstream. I wrote about the rumors, the shamans, “RusHydro” and the upcoming flood: this is the text. The word "Panic" has become a brand in Khakassia. Under the universal company to combat the mythical panic-mongers, he avoids answering the arguments of his opponents RusHydro. The local government is fighting against the public concern about the real state of affairs at the SSHPP and allegations of anxiety. The faithful guards of the authorities - the leading republican journalists from day to day carry the benevolent messages to the residents of Khakassia from the PR service RusHydro.
Those who express an alternative point of view, local state-run democratic media put a stigma on their forehead: they personally sow panic (and this despite the fact that the Public Chamber of the Russian Federation called the catastrophe “probable”).“Panic” has become so effective an answer to all the questions that, under the name of struggle, you can deal with personal enemies and the few critics of local authorities. "RusHydro", the government, local media say that the situation is under control. But how can you control nature? Monitor natural disasters?
An amazing thing. In spite of the fact that practically all forces (from the government to RusHydro) are thrown into the fight against alarmists. On the fact that for half a year they massively brainwash citizens with the absolute safety of the SSh HPPs, in May Khakassia and Krasnoyarsk are still shaking from rumors about the upcoming apocalypse in the 20s. There are opinions that frighten not so much by calculations as by their magic. And those who, in fact, failed the “anti-panic operation,” again discover some evil people who sow panic with their insidious plans (just recall the argument of the spokesman for the Khakassky Ministry of Emergency Situations Irina Butenko that the evil people are panicking, in order to later laugh at crowd).
Look for the guilty among businessmen - they want to sell more stew. Some kind of “financial movers and shakers” are to blame for trying to bring down the rising price of RusHydro shares.The politicians are to blame - they launch rumors for their own purposes. Sorry anyone. But not a national team of “RusHydro” pseudo-PR people, government tantrums and “systemic” media. Perseverance in the search for scapegoats begins to lead to the question: when will the Khakassians (at least once) be provided with irrefutable evidence on each of the charges?
You never thought: maybe they are skillfully throwing the population of an “external enemy”: alarmists, unscrupulous businessmen, “financial tycoons”, politicians, shamans ... People have something to talk about, and who should they blame for their lack of talent. And once again get a lot of money to fight with “alarmism” and again fight with a virtual enemy, accusing him of all the wiles.
Who is alarmist in Khakassia today? Anyone who even a little doubts the official version of the "absolute safety of the SSh HPP." True, it cost a certain shaman to predict the collapse of the dam, as rumors about the upcoming apocalypse immediately captured the minds of the people of Khakassia.
Was it not easier then to pay any shaman who would predict reliable operation of the SS HPPs over the next 50 years? By the way, you will laugh, but the shaman of Subai (Valery Chebochakov) is really going to the station, “find out everything on the spot”.It is not difficult to guess what prediction he will give (it’s time for RusHydro to think about the daily author’s TV program of the shaman with predictions, they have more noticeable successes in this area).
Believe me, there would be no rumors, be present in the controversy about the safety of the SSHPP alternative opinions of independent experts.
If the authorities and RusHydro didn’t strive to force into the heads of the population the idea about the safety of the SShHPP, we would see the viewpoint about the problems of the departed station Valentin Bryzgalov on the local TV channels and on the pages of newspapers (Dr.Sci.Tech., Vice President of the Russian Technical society of power engineers and electrical engineers, a member of the Academy of Electrotechnical Sciences of the Russian Federation, the first director of the SS HPP). Or Vladimir Innokentievich Babkin, who is now alive (God forbid health) (a hydropower engineer, was an active participant in the creation and operation of the Krasnoyarsk Hydroelectric Power Station and the Sayano-Shushensky Hydropower Complex from 1962 to 2001. The last place of work was the Deputy General Director of the Sayano-Shushenskaya Hydroelectric Station.). His works on the problems of the SSHPP are reasoned, weighed, and specific measures for the safety of the station are proposed.
Conducting a massive brainwashing campaign to the population about the safety of the SSHPP and “carefully” protecting the people from alternative opinions, RusHydro associates created a vacuum, and it immediately filled with rumors. An alternative point of view would give people the opportunity to think and decide for themselves how to act in this situation: to leave, or to stay. And do not eat "alternatively" rumors about the predictions of shamans and magicians. Today's panicky moods on the conscience of RusHydro and me in the opposite one will not be persuaded. They forgot that subconsciously people want to see the other side of the coin. In the winter of this year, I and my colleagues repeatedly offered RusHydro to hold a round table with the participation of the company's opponents. I think you should not say what the answer was.
I apologize for the long introduction. But it is extremely important to understand why these rumors arose and, as a result, pre-panic moods. And most importantly, how do we navigate the flow of information and respond both to RusHydro’s assurances and rumors of shamanistic predictions.
Let's try to understand what is happening at the HPP based on the data of independent experts.I will not go into obscure ordinary citizens in the long calculations and indicators. In order to present to readers as clearly as possible the current state of affairs and prospects for the coming months.
So, RusHydro assures that there will be no problems with passing the flood. Everything's under control. In fact, the flood pass this year by RusHydro is guided by the recommendations of Vladimir Babkin (those specialists who are shown on TV like Stefanenko play the role of “talking heads”). Vladimir Innokentievich recommended at the beginning of the flood to dump the entire flow into the reservoir and keep it empty (relatively, of course). According to Babkin's calculations, this will give the dam a head start in passing water to the peak of the flood, when it goes, as they say “big water”. However, RusHydro hopes for a regime of smooth melting of snow. That is, in Khakassia and Tuva the average air temperature will be established within two months and the snow will evenly melt. The inflow to the reservoir will be almost smooth, and the dam will let in water. At the same time, there should not be large precipitation, and the air temperature should not jump from + 10 to + 30. Today the air temperature in Abakan is + 8.Tomorrow may rise sharply to +25. And then a huge amount of flood waters will rush into the reservoir of the SSh HPP. Will the dam cope with a sharp influx of water? RusHydro has no clear answer to this question.
I must say that we have a chance to survive the flood without a catastrophe. Not as big as we would like, but it is. It consists of the following indicators.
The technical possibility of passing water to the flood at the Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP is 13,300 cubic meters per second (with allowance for 2,200 passes through hydraulic units). Today, the secondary power station with a bypass channel has the ability to skip 15,500 cubic meters per second.Minimum peak water flowin the reservoir this year - 15 thousand cubic meters per second.
That is, in the event of the launch (still “raw” bypass channel) of the SSh HPP copes with the flood. In addition, in reserve at the station 15 cubic kilometers of free volume in the reservoir. Based on these indicators, we can say that the station without any problems passes the flood.
And now it was time to list the difficulties.
The above mentioned hydropower engineering engineer, former deputy director of the SS HPP Vladimir Babkin, taking into account the state of the dam, recommends dumping no more than 7 thousand 100 cubic meters per second.As mentioned above, the minimum peak inflow - 15 thousand cubic meters per second - is provided that the average temperature in Tuva and Khakassia does not rise above 15 degrees Celsius and without precipitation, which in itself is unrealistic. The problem is that the level of snow cover is 2-3 times higher than the norm in Tuva. By the way, it almost coincides with the data of independent experts. But this is without taking into account the snow cover in the mountains of Tuva, where the weather service is not monitoring. And for the calculation of the flood force, an inspection of the snow cover of the mountains of the neighboring republic is extremely important.
The weather makes its adjustments. Now it is not in favor of the safety of the residents of Khakassia. The longer the cold in Khakassia, the worse the conditions for the passage of the flood. The snow cover does not melt, but as the weather improves dramatically, abundant melting of snow cover will begin and a huge amount of water will go to the reservoir of the Sayano-Shushenskaya hydroelectric station at once. In addition, precipitation falls. And this may already create a real problem. Because the inflow can be from 30 to 60 thousand cubic meters per second. For the US hydroelectric station - is a sentence.
The headache adds to the condition of the water well.On May 5, RusHydro examined the well and summed up the “preliminary results”:minor damages of individual elements of the crane trestle were fixed, in the area of ​​sections 39 and 46 ...These overpass damages do not affect the safe operation of the GTS SS HPP. The final results of RusHydro promised to be announced by July 1 of this year. It took RusHydro a whole month to look at the bottom of the water well, while the usual echo sounder (available to everyone) allows you to scan the bottom in real time and see it all on the screen. Not just to see, but to “freeze” and examine every single section. Obviously, RusHydro didn’t explore the bottom of the well from a good life, but such a long “summing up” only leads to bad thoughts.
According to independent experts (from “RusHydro”) experts, the real average inflow of water in the SSH reservoir can reach 25 thousand cubic meters per second. This is a very high number. However, in spite of the frightening forecast, experts believe that there is a chance to pass through the flood with such an inflow. It is based on the following: with the introduction of the bypass channel, the possibility of water discharge will increase to 16 thousand 100 cubic meters per second. In reserve - 15 cubic kilometers in the reservoir of the SSh HPP - it will be filled.Spillway open 75-100 percent.
True, it remains to hope that (when opening the spillway by 75-100 percent) the water well will endure. Turbulent flow will not blur the base of the dam. Will withstand the test commissioned bypass channel. And the dam will withstand vibration and, as a result, the formation and development of already existing cracks in the body.
In this case, there is a chance to avoid a catastrophe.
Let not as high as we all would like to hear on TV. But he is. And he is honest. And, God forbid, that he should be the one and only.
On May 19, Alexander Prokopchuk returned from a research trip around Tuva (in order to assess snow cover in the republic and make forecasts for the upcoming flood). It is not only interesting, but gives answers about the amount of snow in the mountains of Tuva. We read, analyze. Additional information is available on the website of the Public Committee "Sayano-Shushenskaya HPP"
In the next part of the material we will talk about how to navigate in the environment. What to do in the event of a catastrophe, where, how and at what height to hide in case of the most unfavorable development of events.
I would like to thank the Moscow State University researcher Alexander Prokopchuk not only for his invaluable help in preparing the materials, but for his disinterested and sincere work in independently assessing the state of the SSHPP and developing measures to ensure the safety of the population in the worst case scenario.

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