Kurdistan will be?
Territories with the Kurdish population for 1992 according to the CIA
LIH has already been written off as an expense, I think they will be supported while at least several thousand combat-capable will remain there, but then very many will want to declare themselves the winner of ISIL. Syria will obviously stand as a single state.
Therefore, the issue of the Kurdish state comes to the fore in this whole story.
I think there is a secret agreement between the parties to the conflict on this issue.
- between Assad and the Syrian Kurds,
- between Assad and Putin,
- between Putin and Obama,
- between Obama and the Syrian Kurds,
- between Obama and Iraqi Kurds.
Let's look at the story.
Kurdistan as an independent state was recognized by the international community on August 10, 1920, within the boundaries established by the World Court of Arbitration.
This formation was destroyed by the Kemal revolutionary wars and became part of the new Turkey.
And now about the alleged content of the arrangements.
Assad promised the Kurds autonomy with the broadest rights, almost independence.Syrian Kurdistan will officially be called the state, albeit part of the SAR, to have its own army, police, taxes, laws, etc. It also stipulates the right to declare complete independence with the obligations of the parties to negotiate peacefully and quickly resolve the process of final divorce.
What is the benefit of Assad?
Assad needs allies, he can not afford more enemies.
What does Assad lose?
The number of Kurds in Syria is about 2.5 million people (about 9% of the population)And not the most important for the state territory in the north-east of the country. The contract does not apply to the province of Aleppo. This is not such a big loss.
What is profitable for Russia? First, we also need an ally in the current war. Secondly, this is a prospective weakening of Turkey. Of which an ally is by no means out.
What does the Obama party need?
There is a set of reasons. And we must not forget that there are all kinds of tendencies in the American authorities, and the opposite too.
If the LIH will soon be over, then war games should be continued on new bases, peace cannot be allowed. And the war will be in Turkey. For the sake of such a thing and a NATO ally is not a pity.Moreover, the major powers with their own opinion and substantial regional significance are not needed by the Americans in the new world order. Well, how do they go over in the vehicle?
The situation in Syria in February 2016. Yellow territory occupied by Kurdish troops.
Voynushki will be in Turkish Kurdistan for tearing him away from Turkey. There are also options to arrange war games in Iraq. Local Kurds against the Baghdad government. Although Iraqi Kurds are already almost independent, you can always ignite. And support both sides, and warm up on that. The base will be a Syrian Kurdistan with a well-armed and experienced army.
In Turkey, it is possible to arrange Maidan (there should be especially good - the very word Turkish). And use instability in any direction. You can cultivate radical Islamism in order to redirect it against Russia through the Crimea, the Caucasus. You can try to arrange a war with Armenia to involve Russia. At a minimum, a new flow of refugees to Europe can be arranged. It is very close, no transportation costs from afar. And it is possible at once five million to Germany pushes. This will be a knockout punch.Under such a threat, Europe will sign any zone of trade.
And the temporary tactical coincidence with the Russian interests is perfectly turned up. And amers are confident that in the new Kurdistan they will become the main managers and beneficiaries. The reasons for that they have.
Let's look at the Turkish prospects for such development.
Ethnic Kurds make up a substantial part of the population in Turkey — about 30–35% , although according to official information from the Turkish National Council, the Kurdish population makes up 18.7% of the total population of Turkey
Kurds in the population of the subregions of Turkey
The total number of Kurds in Turkey today is estimated at between 18 and 20-25 million, of which up to 5-10 million in western silts (Istanbul, Izmir, Ankara, Bursa, etc.), making up a minority of the population, and about 15 million in eastern muds (provinces), making up the majority of the population there.
Kurdish-speaking population in 1965
If a real war develops in Turkish Kurdistan, Turkey risks losing up to a quarter of its population and territory. And the fighting in Diyarbakir has been going on for about a month, for example.
Very sad prospect for the Turks.And such a war could easily go on for years. And what about the allies? - Oops. Turks will not have allies. Amer already sold. Europe is not up to it, and they, too, amers govern. With Russia quarreled. From the south, the victorious Assad. From the east, the Russian military base in Armenia. From the west - the sworn enemies of the Greeks.
So here. If all this is true, then Erdogan’s tantrums are not at all connected with some dreams of a new Ottoman Empire, not with stolen oil. It was just that the evening had suddenly ceased to be languid. Half a year ago there were some options.tear offhistorically reunite his piece of defeated Syria, and now ... Now Turkey will be torn, very evil wolves. Nothing personal, just business, so the card went down.
Here he is torn. That plane will bring down, then it is trying to make friends with the Saud, although this is the main rival for influence in the Sunni world in theory, although there will be no sense from the Saud in a real war ...
A separate issue is Russia's position in the upcoming turmoil inside Turkey. After all, war is not profitable there. It is beneficial for us to put pressure on the participants of the process using other people's threats. There are also hints of termination of the treaty of 1921, and talk about the Armenian territories.